Binomial Probability Calculator
Probability of exactly or at least k successes in n trials.
Exactly 6 of 10
20.508%
At least 6
37.695%
Expected successes
5
The formula behind coin flips
P(k of n) = C(n,k)·pᵏ·(1−p)ⁿ⁻ᵏ: count the arrangements, multiply by each arrangement's chance. Six heads in ten fair flips: 210 arrangements × (½)¹⁰ ≈ 20.5%. It governs anything with independent yes/no trials — defect counts, conversion tests, free throws.
Exactly vs. at least
'At least k' sums the tail — usually the question people mean ('what are the odds of 6 or more?'). For large n the binomial smooths into the normal curve, which is why polling margins and quality control both lean on z-scores downstream of this formula.
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